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Forum:2011 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/Bingiza
Tropical Cyclone Bingiza It's about f'ing time! The SWIO is absurdly behind this year, and because it's usually the most active basin in the entire SHem, with 10 storms a year, vs the 7 in Australia and 9 in the SPac, the SHem overall will be below average should this keep up. This might mark near-record inactivity if this holds for this basin... Anyhow, this thing is currently a TS threatening upper Madagascar. And we all know how Madagascar is for TC's(Gafilo of 2004). This thing may be intersting to watch for now. Ryan1000 21:16, February 9, 2011 (UTC) ::About time! Currently forecasted to be a cat 2, on saturday. Forecasted to stall until then. Yqt1001 00:02, February 10, 2011 (UTC) :The problem with stallers like Bingiza is they have a lot of time to strengthen. If it stalls long enough, it may even become a 4 or 5 by next week, and that won't be good at all for Madagascar. Even if it somehow turns out to sea, then Marturius and Reunión have a big storm heading towards them. Stay tuned on this one. --Ryan1000 17:15, February 10, 2011 (UTC) ::The shear in the area it is in, is quite a bit high, I'm surprised it even formed. Not looking to good for a huge cyclone to emerge. And now its not even forecasted to become a cat 2, however Madagascar isnt the best place for landfalls, so it really doesnt matter. Yqt1001 20:37, February 10, 2011 (UTC) :Or it might not even survive to get to Madagascar at all. Even so, as I mentioned , the SWIO is really dead this year; wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be their version of 1914's AHS. This year has had a slow kickoff, but what the pacific turns out to be will determine how quiet or active worldwide we will be in 2011. We'll just have to wait and see. Ryan1000 23:58, February 10, 2011 (UTC) Well, still a tropical storm, expected to make landfall as a category 1 at landfall in a couple days..but this storm is HUUUUGE, its already touching the coast of Madagascar, and at landfall at its current size half the island will be affected. Yqt1001 14:19, February 12, 2011 (UTC) :Madagascar is not a happy place for tropical cyclone landfalls at all... Cyclone Ivan 3 years ago smashed the upper coast of the country in February 2008, killing 93 and doing several million dollars in damages. Ivan was wrecked up by Madagascar and died in the Mozambique Channel the day after it's landfall. However, sometimes storms do survive the passage and hit mainland Africa... Cyclone Eline in 2000 did just that. It killed several people in Madagascar when it struck as a category one, but it somehow managed to survive the passage over the country and rapidly strengthened in the Mozambique Channel and then hit Mozambique as a powerful category 4 storm, killing over 1,000 people and causing tremendous damage. Cyclone Hudah had been another long-lived and powerful cyclone that rampaged across the SWIO a month after Eline, and it hit Madagascar as a strong three and Mozambique as a powerful 1. The combination of those two almost completly destroyed the fragile economies of those two countries in Southern Africa. Cyclone Bingiza is a very big storm, and big storms that strike mountanous areas have been very destructive and deadly. Tropical Storm Bilis in the 2006 PTS was a large and weak tropical storm that hit Taiwan and mainland China, causing over 600 deaths and up to 5 billion in damages. The last Super Typhoon Bilis in 2000 was a category 5 that hit the same general area, but it wasn't as big and slow-moving as the 2006 tropical storm, and therefore it's damage and death toll was much, much lower. Hopefully Madagascar can get everyone out of harm's way from this big storm. It'll be coming in by say, Monday or Tuesday, but the enormus size of this thing won't really make a difference from the impact from flash floods and mudslides it'll cause beforehand. Ryan1000 17:30, February 12, 2011 (UTC) Well, jumped up to a cat 2. No surprise, there isn't much shear anymore (and isn't much in the direction the storm is going). This storm screams "DEADLY", the outer rainband is already hitting Madagascar, and at the speed it is going the eye wont even get to land for a few days! And as if 55mph winds were bad enough for Madagascar, now they are up to 95mph! This storm is getting worse by the hour, I am fully worried about the effects of this storm. Yqt1001 23:51, February 12, 2011 (UTC) :That's what I had mentioned above, Yqt. If it slows down fast enough, and picks up steam fast enough, then Bingiza could become a 4 or 5 when it hits the coast. That still isn't out of the question, but it doesn't matter how strong it is when it hits; Bingiza is going to dump several inches of rain and cause lots of damage from flash floods and mudslides either way. At the speed this thing is going, it could leave the upper coast of Madagascar in ruins by tomorrow or Monday. Also, because it's very big, there is an outside chance that it could cross into the Mozambique Channel and reorganize there before hitting mainland Africa as a powerful cyclone. Cyclone Jokwe in 2008 was the last cyclone to hit mainland Africa, but it was only over land for a short time, clipping the upper-east part of Mozambique. Cyclone Favio in 2007 was the last cyclone to hit Mozambique and move inland. It hit on the exact same day Eline did, but the small size and rapid movement of that storm limited it's damages and deaths there. I hope that Madagascar has learned from storms in the past, and their emergency officials get everyone out of harm's way. Ryan1000 01:37, February 13, 2011 (UTC) Now 4th major of the year. The storm doesn't look to strong as it has no eye...but its still growing, rapidly. If it were to hit in the center only a few areas wouldn't be affected. Looking even worse for people of Madagascar.. Eye wall looks close to hitting land, its moving so slow that its going to dissipate over Madagascar not even close to the other side. Not looking good at all... Yqt1001 14:55, February 13, 2011 (UTC) :Bingiza is organizing very rapidly... It hasn't hit land, and much of the storm is still over very warm water. A category 5 may be a bit too far ahead of this thing, but a 135-140 mph cat. 4 landfall still isn't out of the question... The outer rainbands have struck Madagascar for at least two days; I'm surprised no reports from flash floods or mudslides or deaths are out yet. Bingiza will hit soon, and when it does, it will pretty much flood up the entire northern coast of the country. I think it will probrably not survive Madagascar, but that doesn't really matter knowing how bad it could(or will) be. Ryan1000 17:41, February 13, 2011 (UTC) ::Whoop! Bingiza suddenly picked up speed today and hit Madagascar as a powerful cat 3, a lot sooner than I expected. Flooding won't be as bad as otherwise could be, but that won't hinder it from causing damage. Hopefully it won't survive the passage over Madagascar and enter the Mozambique Channel and go onto Mozambique... Ryan1000 21:37, February 14, 2011 (UTC) Well after making its second landfall, it has finally died over Madagascar. Yqt1001 23:10, February 18, 2011 (UTC)